Translated using ChatGPT service.
According to data from the Central Statistical Bureau, in February 2025, compared to January, the consumer price level increased by 0.8%. Prices of goods rose by 0.8%, while services increased by 0.7%.
Traditionally, February sees very moderate price changes, but this year, the increase in prices for this month is the sharpest since 2022, when prices rose by 1.6% due to rapidly rising food and energy resource prices. Before 2022, a sharper price increase in this month was only observed in 2009.
The biggest contributing factor to the price increase in February this year was the 0.9% rise in food prices, which contributed 0.2 percentage points to the overall consumer price level. Traditionally, food prices in February have a seasonally characteristic increase. The biggest contributing factor was the price increase of fresh vegetables, bread, and coffee, while the biggest decreasing effect was the price decline of dried, salted, and smoked meats, as well as dairy products.
Food prices globally rose in February after a decline in the previous two months – increasing by 1.6% during the month and 8.2% compared to February 2024. Although the meat price index remained stable, all other indices increased, with the largest increases in sugar, dairy products, and vegetable oils. The sharp increase in sugar prices in February, following a decline in the previous three months, was driven by concerns over a decrease in global sugar supply for the 2024/25 season. The price increase was influenced by concerns about lower yields in India and the impact of droughts in Brazil, as well as the real value increase in Brazil, which affected exports. Dairy product prices also rose sharply, with all major dairy product categories seeing increases due to lower milk production in Oceania and strong demand. The vegetable oil price index also increased for all major vegetable oil types. Palm oil prices recovered after a January decline, which was caused by reduced production in Southeast Asia and increased demand in the biodiesel sector in Indonesia. Soybean oil prices rose due to strong demand, while rapeseed and sunflower oil prices increased due to concerns over potential supply shortages. The price increase for cereals in February was more moderate. Wheat prices rose due to limited export volumes from Russia and concerns over unfavorable harvest conditions in Europe, Russia, and the U.S. Meanwhile, meat prices remained almost unchanged. Poultry meat prices continued to decrease as Brazil's exports increased global supply, despite avian flu outbreaks in other countries, and pork prices declined in the European Union. However, beef and lamb prices rose due to strong demand.
In February, prices for services increased by an average of 0.7%, which contributed 0.2 percentage points to the overall price level. The largest contributing factor to the increase in services prices in February was the price rise of housing-related services – housing management and rental prices. There was also a significant impact from the increase in transportation service prices due to the higher costs of international flights, social protection (elderly care home fees), and preschool education.
Fuel prices continued to rise in February, but at a slower pace than in the previous two months, increasing by 1.8%, which contributed 0.1 percentage points to the overall consumer price level. Gasoline prices rose more sharply.
The average monthly price of Brent crude oil in February, compared to January, decreased by 4.2%, and by the end of February, compared to the end of January, the price of Brent crude oil had fallen by 4.7%, marking the sharpest monthly decline since September 2024. Over the course of the month, the price gradually decreased, with slight fluctuations, reaching $73 per barrel, as concerns about the U.S. economy and broader market uncertainty negatively impacted energy demand forecasts. The price decline was also influenced by hopes for progress in peace talks regarding Ukraine. Markets remained cautious due to the additional tariffs imposed by the U.S. President on China, the world’s largest importer of crude oil. Meanwhile, supply risks resurfaced, limiting the price drop. The U.S. President revoked Chevron's operating license in Venezuela and imposed new sanctions on Iran at the beginning of the month, both of which could reduce global oil supply. He also confirmed tariffs on Mexico and Canada, including a 10% duty on Canada’s energy imports, which will come into effect on March 4. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is considering whether to implement the planned increase in oil production in April or to maintain the current level, carefully assessing the global supply outlook.
A significant impact in February was the price increase for housing-related energy resources, which contributed 0.1 percentage points to the overall consumer price level. The biggest effect was the 3.6% increase in electricity prices, driven by rising prices on the exchange, reducing tariffs linked to electricity exchange prices. This was mainly influenced by colder and less windy weather conditions in the first half of February, as well as the Baltic states disconnecting from the Russian electricity grid and joining the European grid on February 8-9, reducing available transmission capacity, which caused energy flows to the Baltic region to decrease by 8%. Meanwhile, natural gas prices remained unchanged, but heating energy prices decreased by 0.7% and solid fuel prices by 1.1%.
A significant price increase in February was observed for tobacco products, as retailers carried out an inventory of tobacco products on February 1 due to the excise tax increase for several tobacco product categories on January 1, 2025. Tobacco prices rose by 4.3%, contributing 0.1 percentage points to the overall consumer price level. Meanwhile, alcoholic beverage prices remained unchanged.
The biggest decreasing effect in February, continuing from the winter season's sales of goods, was the price decrease for clothing and footwear (a 1.0% decrease), which reduced the overall consumer price level by 0.1 percentage points.
In February 2025, compared to February of the previous year, consumer prices increased by 3.7%. The annual average inflation was 1.7%.
In the future, global price fluctuations and geopolitical developments will continue to have a significant impact on price changes. At the same time, domestic factors, such as new tax changes, both from the supply side with the increase in taxes and tariffs, and from the demand side with increased post-tax wages, which will increase consumers' purchasing power, will also have a major influence. The average annual inflation in 2025 is expected to be higher than in 2024, in the range of approximately 2.5-3%.